Is Globalization Fading in a Post-Brexit World?

| December 02, 2016 | 10:00 am

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called “age of globalization” has delivered on its most basic premise: the free movement around the world of capital, goods and people. But globalization is more nuanced than that: It’s also the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations and cultures, and implies a shift away from “nationality,” although that premise is showing fragility post-Brexit vote.

Globalization

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OPEC Meeting in Vienna—Incremental Positive

| December 01, 2016 | 4:35 pm

The OPEC meeting this week ended in Vienna with a formal agreement similar to their announced plans two months prior. The headline is clearly positive in that this action accelerates the rebalancing process that was already underway. We would still argue however that this announcement should be viewed as a production freeze and not a production cut as we expect actual production to be closer to 33 million barrels per day (mb/d) vs the 32.5 mb/d quota, which is about what OPEC is estimated to average for 2016.

 OPEC Crude Production (excluding condensate and NGLs)
2015 32.2 mb/d
1H 2016 32.6 mb/d
2H 2016 est 33.4 mb/d
1H 2017 est 32.8 mb/d (official quote: 32.5)
Source: Energy Aspects, as of December 1, 2016

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Surprise, Surprise

| December 01, 2016 | 10:26 am

Both the Election and Market Reaction Confound the Consensus

At its November meeting, the Atlantic Trust Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) focused on the economic and investment implications of the election results. We believe the unique nature of the incoming administration, along with the Republican Congress and “one-party rule” in Washington, will bring significant change to the policy agenda on issues that matter to financial markets.

Market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory has bucked the consensus expectation. There was no panicked equity sell-off and flight to safety. In fact, the opposite has occurred. Stocks have rallied while the Treasury market has been hammered.

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